So, listening to the pundits, 98 will be the year of wireless data. Well… you never know, it’s remotely possible that they could be right this time - the fact that this tetherless utopia hasn’t materialized yet, hasn’t stopped them from presenting the same predictions every year for about the past 5 years. As each year reaches it’s mid-point a hasty re-affirmation is made in a much louder voice that the “next year”, which they referred to “last year”, was of course next year and not this year (still with me?). On this basis I am predicting that next year will be the year that the world will end and, in line with many of the more bizarre religions, my prediction stands until a year arrives when it actually does. Therefore, if there’s anyone left, I’ll be able to say “I told you so!”, with a smug grin. I further predict that salmon will live up trees and eat pencils… Anyway! We should leave the so called pundits to wallow in there own crapulence and examine some of the realities surrounding the wireless data conundrum.
So for wireless data to work, the first thing we’d seem to need would be a uniform national digital wireless standard (analog is very messy for data, yuk!), a bit like Europe, Australia and chunks of the East who have GSM. Any offers? Nope! Sorry! I forgot! Instead of doing something vaguely useful for the citizens of the US, the FCC thought that could make a bit more cash by auctioning off 1900 MHz licenses to any imbecile with a few bucks and a network build out schedule. This has resulted in a marvel we call “PCS 1900”, a marketing term for a frequency, but with undertones implying something far more tangible. This “standard” was designed primarily to baffle and mislead anyone without a very recent degree in cellular engineering. PCS 1900 stands for “Personal Communication Services on the 1900 MHz waveband”. That’s it, end of standard. To date the US has for some bizarre reason chosen to launch GSM, CDPD, CDMA, and TDMA-US all under the guise of PCS 1900. In addition, flitting about on their own wavebands outside of PCS 1900, 2 way paging, Mobitex, Ricochet and Ardis. These are the first few that spring to mind and of course they are all entirely different standards available sometimes together, sometimes on their own, or most often not at all.
Rather than go through the idiosyncrasies of each of them, it is sufficient to know that they are not the same, don’t really talk with each other and none of them has even close to reasonable national coverage. Of course, with the exception of GSM, even attempting to be a global citizen is just about impossible. US GSM network providers (who use a phone frequency incompatible with the rest of the world) do let you take the little tiny chip thing out of your phone so you can immediately lose it. Or, if you have wisely attached it to your forehead with crazy glue, insert it into another phone in Europe where you can start to accrue “the mother of all” roaming fees from calls made by telesales people at 4am Europe time (your phone number stays the same, which of course is a mixed blessing). Now, we can probably assume that “voice” (the killer wireless app), will realistically need to happen before data. Hmmm… it’s not looking good is it.
The only other option for the Global citizen is to purchase a satelite phone, but of course it’s the size of a briefcase, costs a small inheritance to purchase and maintain and you can only use it outdoors with a satelite dish. Most convenient!
You’ll also need some sort of device to examine your data on. First it’s got to realistically fit in a pocket otherwise you’re not going to take it anywhere with you are you! Second it has to be at a price to buy and maintain that does not make you clutch your chest in feigned heart attack.
What’s on offer? Well, still a bit thin there as well. You can spend about a grand on a phone about the size of a house brick with a hopeless PDA thing inside, or you can use a phone with a little LCD display and spend years trying to decode abbreviations with your thumb permanently on the scroll button.
You’re barely quivering with anticipation at this stage, are you.
Finally, what’s the killer app? What compelling functionality is there for the mobile information freak. A local cheese reference? Stock quotes and restaurant guides for the aspiring yuppie? Local bus timetables? Weather reports? Email? Are any of these things you positively need to have access to 24 hours a day? If you do, then you have far too much time on your hands (Geek!) or you are an ambitious financial climber (Freak!). About the closest I have come to killer app so far is something a Dutch friend of mine has. He lives in Amsterdam and uses his phone as an alarm clock. A service in Holland schedules a text message to his GSM phone at 7am every morning. The text message contains a new joke about Belgians each morning. Fun, but not high on the “must have” list is it.
This has been said before, but aren’t we all too connected as it is? Do you really need to read your email in the bath? Doesn’t your heart already drop every time your mobile phone rings. What’s your emotional response when your pager goes off? Leaping for joy is probably not high on your list of reactions.
I’m embarrassed to admit it, but I have a mobile phone and all I really use it for is to phone people to tell them I’m going to be late. Usually they don’t have one, so I’m left with leaving them a message on their answering machine at home so they can listen to it when they have returned from the place where I met them a few hours beforehand.
So what’s the conclusion? The technologies lacking, and the compelling “killer app” has yet to materialize and the costs are high (I’m reaching for my wallet already). The target audience would seem to be Silicon Valley at this stage.
Is next year going to be the year of wireless data? Well there does not appear to be much in it’s favor at present. So I give up and I offer a challenge! Anyone who has the killer wireless data application for the average Joe should email me and help me figure it out!